The Strait of Hormuz is not yet fully open. But markets have already started repricing. Early on May 29, news that the US and Iran had reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU), under which Hormuz would be reopened gradually and the US would roll back its naval blockade in synchronized steps, pulled Brent crude down to around $93.71 per barrel.CNBC The MOU does not yet carry the official signature of US President Donald Trump; negotiating parties have agreed on the 60-day framework but no formal signing has taken place.CNN
This is the reality Vietnamese investors must navigate before today’s session opens: three groups of stocks were priced under a Hormuz-closed scenario, and that calculation now needs to be redone.
Brent: The Journey from Peak Back to Pre-Conflict Territory
The 35-session chart of Brent crude tells a clear two-act story. Act one: from mid-April to May 18, prices climbed from the $84–95 range to a peak of $112.10 per barrel, the highest level in nearly three years, as fears about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz drove geopolitical hedging to maximum intensity. Act two: from May 21, as negotiations began showing progress, the market started unwinding those hedges. Brent pulled back to $105, then $99, then $96. The MOU news on the morning of May 29 was the final leg of that move, bringing the price to around $93.71, a decline of approximately 16.4% from the peak in under two weeks.
The $93 level is not “post-war territory”: it is the familiar range where crude was trading before the conflict began. More telling is the compression in volatility. The VIX closed at 15.74 on May 28, its lowest in weeks.Motley Fool Risk appetite is expanding globally, with Nasdaq closing at a record high in the same session. Capital flows are shifting. The question is whether Vietnam makes it onto the itinerary.
Group 1: Oil & Gas, a Margin Recalculation
This is the group with the most direct exposure. From the May 21 peak to the May 28 close, four major oil and gas stocks fell meaningfully: BSR dropped 7.2% (from VND 30,700 to VND 28,500 per share), PVD fell 8.4% (from VND 32,750 to VND 30,000), PLX declined 8.2% (from VND 42,950 to VND 39,450), and PVS fell 4.2% (from VND 40,400 to VND 38,700).
Those declines have already priced in part of the oil price cool-down. The key question going into May 29 is whether an official MOU triggers another round of repricing.
BSR and PLX sit at opposite ends of the value chain, and their stories run in opposite directions. BSR operates the Dung Quat refinery: it benefits from strong refining margins when Brent is high and refined product prices hold. With Brent stabilizing around $93, margins narrow, but Q1 results were already recorded at a high base. Any further downside pressure depends on actual Q2 refining margins. PLX’s situation is more nuanced: Q1 already recorded losses from inventory write-downs as crude prices surged; lower prices now reduce the risk of fresh provisions, but retail margins also compress as pump prices are adjusted downward.
PVD and PVS operate in upstream services (drilling and engineering). This segment responds much more slowly to spot oil prices, because service contracts are tied to the long-term production plans of international operators. Near-term, margin expansion in services may stall, but the magnitude of impact on stock prices is typically smaller than for the refining and distribution names.
Group 2: Transport and Retail, Fuel Costs Softening
If oil and gas is the group under pressure, transport, aviation, and consumer retail are the beneficiaries. The fuel price adjustment on May 28 lowered E5 RON92 gasoline to a ceiling of VND 23,258 per liter (a reduction of VND 1,082/liter) and 0.05S diesel to VND 27,651 per liter (down VND 1,110/liter).Techz.vn If Brent holds around $93 through the next price review in early June, domestic retail fuel prices could see another downward adjustment.
Fuel is the largest variable cost for road transport, logistics, and aviation operators. These three sectors absorbed the pressure of rising fuel prices throughout April and into May. Now their gross margins have room to recover. The speed of recovery depends on contract structure: long-term transport contracts adjust slowly because freight rate revisions take time; aviation adjusts faster because jet fuel costs flow directly to the P&L. Consumer retail benefits indirectly through lower delivery costs, particularly for e-commerce models with heavy logistics exposure.
Group 3: VN-Index, Global Flows Have Not Arrived Yet
The one-month performance picture shows a clear divergence: VN-Index gained 0.52%, while Nasdaq rose 9.10% and KOSPI surged 22.33%. The gap versus Nasdaq stands at 8.58 percentage points; versus KOSPI, it is nearly 22 percentage points.
Over that same period, the VN-Index fell in four of the last five sessions, dropping from its May 18 peak of 1,927.94 points to 1,863.67 points on May 28, a loss of approximately 64 points, or 3.33%. That decline coincided with a period of net foreign selling and increased caution from retail investors. The performance gap versus global markets is not in itself a buy signal, but it does reflect a clear reality: Vietnam has not yet absorbed the wave of risk appetite that has been driving Asian and US equities higher in the same window.
If President Trump signs the MOU on May 29, a technical rebound is a higher-probability scenario. However, the scale of any bounce depends on liquidity: if trading volume stays below the 700-million-share threshold seen in recent sessions, a short-lived bounce is more likely than a sustained, high-conviction rally.
Four Signals to Watch in Today’s Session
The setup heading into May 29 has a distinctive feature: much has already been priced in, but nothing has been officially confirmed. Four signals worth tracking:
- Brent at the Asian open: holding below $95/barrel signals the market is betting on supply easing; a move back above $96 would indicate the MOU is not yet considered a done deal.
- Oil and gas stocks at the opening auction (ATO): BSR and PLX are the two names to watch at the open. A deeper gap-down signals continued margin repricing; opening flat to reference price suggests the 7–8% decline was sufficient to absorb the news.
- Foreign flows in the first 30 minutes: continued net selling means the cautious posture persists; net buying is a sign that risk-appetite capital is beginning to look at Vietnam again.
- Official confirmation from the US side: if a signing is confirmed during the morning session, oil and gas stocks could face additional pressure while transport names bounce.
Repricing, Not a Trend Reversal
The 60-day MOU is the endpoint of nearly a month of escalating tensions, not the starting point of a new long-term trend. Longer-horizon questions remain unanswered: will both sides hold the 60-day framework, and what happens after it expires? Those questions will not be resolved in today’s session.
What the Vietnamese market is navigating right now is more near-term: the three stock groups priced under the old scenario will adjust over the next few sessions. The speed and depth of that adjustment will reveal how much the market believes in this particular story of reconciliation. That, in turn, is the data needed to plan the next move.
