GAS Hits Price Ceiling in a Red Session: Three Iran Scenarios
Macro Insights

GAS Hits Price Ceiling in a Red Session: Three Iran Scenarios

May 13, 2026 closed with 176 stocks in the red, yet Vietnam's four largest oil and gas shares all surged 6-7%. The divergence traces directly to the Hormuz deadlock and three scenarios that could play out next week.

Thanh Hà·
Copper Hits $13,943/t Record: The Grid, Not AI, Drives the Rally
Macro Insights

Copper Hits $13,943/t Record: The Grid, Not AI, Drives the Rally

Copper just set an all-time record on the LME, yet the AI-demand narrative being cited most widely accounts for the smallest share of actual demand growth. Three structural forces are doing the real work.

Thanh Hà·
Moody's Positive Outlook: Three Channels Into Vietnam's Capital Market
Macro Insights

Moody's Positive Outlook: Three Channels Into Vietnam's Capital Market

On May 4, 2026, Moody's lifted Vietnam's outlook to Positive while keeping the Ba2 rating unchanged. This is not a rating upgrade, but its concrete effects on borrowing costs, bond yields, and foreign capital flows are worth understanding.

Thanh Hà·
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit: Two Zones of Vietnam's Electronics FDI
Macro Insights

Trump-Xi Beijing Summit: Two Zones of Vietnam's Electronics FDI

On May 14, Trump arrived in Beijing with 17 top U.S. executives in tow. For Vietnam investors, the right question is which parts of eight years of hard-capital electronics FDI are truly at risk.

Thanh Hà·
Fed Is Changing Its Chair, But Markets Still Bet on No Rate Cut
Macro Insights

Fed Is Changing Its Chair, But Markets Still Bet on No Rate Cut

Warsh is set to take over as Fed Chair this week. Derivatives markets are pricing a 95.9% probability of no rate change at the June meeting, and three structural reasons explain why 'new chair equals lower rates' is an assumption without institutional grounding.

Thanh Hà·
Gold Bars After 14 Years of Monopoly: Vietnam's Market Is Opening Up
Macro Insights

Gold Bars After 14 Years of Monopoly: Vietnam's Market Is Opening Up

Decree 24/2012 shut down the free gold market. Fourteen years later, banks are racing to apply for gold bar production licenses, and the Prime Minister has instructed the SBV to urgently report on a proposed National Gold Exchange.

Phương Nam·
Vietnam's 36% Debt Ratio Can't Block USD-Driven Capital Costs
Macro Insights

Vietnam's 36% Debt Ratio Can't Block USD-Driven Capital Costs

Vietnam's public debt stands at just 36% of GDP, well below the National Assembly's 60% ceiling. But elevated US Treasury yields transmit through three dollar-denominated channels that push up the cost of capital in every Vietnamese investor's portfolio.

Thanh Hà·
Big4 Hit the 85% LDR Cap: Three Rate Scenarios Ahead
Macro Insights

Big4 Hit the 85% LDR Cap: Three Rate Scenarios Ahead

Over VND 490,000 billion in Treasury deposits were excluded from the LDR denominator at the start of 2026, pushing all four state-owned banks to the 85% ceiling simultaneously. The week of May 11-15 will determine which of three policy branches the SBV follows, and each leads to a different savings rate trajectory.

Phương Nam·
Gundlach: 40% Defensive Exposure at S&P 500 Peak
Macro Insights

Gundlach: 40% Defensive Exposure at S&P 500 Peak

As U.S. equities completed six straight weeks of gains, Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital is holding 40% of his portfolio in defensive assets. The three arguments behind that call, and what it means for Vietnamese investors.

Thanh Hà·
Ninh Thuan Nuclear: The Three Structural Shifts That Changed Everything
Macro Insights

Ninh Thuan Nuclear: The Three Structural Shifts That Changed Everything

After a decade on hold, Vietnam's nuclear restart at Ninh Thuan is backed by three structural changes: a real power deficit, net-zero constraints, and lower long-term capital costs. Power sector stocks have diverged sharply; investors must distinguish between priced-in expectations and genuine upcoming catalysts.

Phương Nam·
Credit Outpaces Deposits, CPI at 5.46%: Three Interest Rate Scenarios
Macro Insights

Credit Outpaces Deposits, CPI at 5.46%: Three Interest Rate Scenarios

Credit growth hit 4.42% while VND deposit growth lagged by nearly 2 percentage points, and April CPI breached the full-year 4.5% target. The SBV faces mounting dual pressure as three distinct interest rate scenarios come into focus.

Thanh Hà·
US Court Strikes Down 10% Tariff Again: Why Wall Street Didn't Flinch
Macro Insights

US Court Strikes Down 10% Tariff Again: Why Wall Street Didn't Flinch

The Court of International Trade ruled Trump's global 10% tariff illegal for the second time in three months. Wall Street's calm was the right technical read, but the medium-term picture is more complex.

Thanh Hà·
Brent Down 6%, Gold Up 2.87%: Reading the Right Signal
Macro Insights

Brent Down 6%, Gold Up 2.87%: Reading the Right Signal

On the night of May 6, Iran peace talks pushed Brent down 6% while gold climbed 2.87%. These two assets respond to fundamentally different risk channels; most investors are watching the wrong one.

Thanh Hà·
Hormuz De-escalation: S&P 500 Hits Record, Brent Falls 2.6%
Macro Insights

Hormuz De-escalation: S&P 500 Hits Record, Brent Falls 2.6%

One Trump announcement on the night of May 5 activated two independent mechanisms: U.S. equities hit an all-time high while Brent crude dropped 2.6%. Vietnam's oil stocks now face both forces heading into the May 6 session.

Thanh Hà·
Brent Surges to USD 114: Three Vietnamese Stock Groups, Three Different Reads
Macro Insights

Brent Surges to USD 114: Three Vietnamese Stock Groups, Three Different Reads

Iran struck Fujairah's oil port on the night of May 4, sending Brent up nearly 6% to USD 114.44. Three groups of Vietnamese stocks face the impact through entirely different channels ahead of the May 5 morning open.

Thanh Hà·